Chocolate is one of the oldest and most popular treats in the world, a global food staple that delights our taste buds with its sweetness, rich flavor, and mouth-melting texture. Its origins can be traced back over 5,000 years to Mesoamerica (current-day Mexico), where ancient civilizations like the Mayans and Aztecs cultivated cacao from which they prepared a bitter drink used in rituals or as a medicine. From there, cacao embarked on a long and fascinating journey through history, gradually evolving into the many chocolate varieties we enjoy today and which have given rise to a global industry.
Since we’ve been consuming chocolate and chocolate-related desserts for centuries, people tend to take it for granted. But what if we told you that we risk losing access to this highly beloved confection? Imagine that one day, all the chocolate easter eggs and heart-shaped Valentine’s Day chocolates will be gone, all because the main ingredient, cocoa, is going through a bit of a crisis.
There’s a lot of effort that goes into producing chocolate that most people don’t know anything about. All we see are the final products, nicely packed and neatly arranged on stores’ shelves for us to pick whenever the cravings kick in. But behind this idyllic scene of indulgence hides a harsh reality that paints a rather bleak future for these saccharine treats, one where the risk of extinction looms large.
The root of the problem
If you feel like your favorite chocolate bar has been getting more and more expensive, you’re not imagining it. Statistics show that cocoa prices have seen a sharp increase, reaching record highs over the past years. According to a 2025 analysis by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), chocolate prices have gone up by about 43% since 2022. Even if things have cooled down a bit in 2025, the price of cocoa remains very high. This is clearly reflected in the price of chocolate, and consumers are not happy about it.
It’s not just inflation that’s been driving the price surge in chocolate products, but the many hurdles that the cocoa industry has been struggling with for years. The list is quite long, but research reveals that climate change is the main culprit, and every cocoa company in the world is feeling the impact.
Over 50% of the global cocoa production comes from countries like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, where rising temperatures and prolonged droughts have wreaked havoc on cocoa harvests. The extreme weather phenomena are then doubled by the many diseases that affect cocoa crops. The black pod disease alone has wiped off 30% of the annual cocoa production. The cacao swollen shoot virus, a highly damaging virus that shrinks roots and pods and can even kill cocoa trees within 3-4 years, can lead to yield losses of up to 50%. Because of these pests, cocoa farmers from across the world have seen their crops diminish year after year, feeling powerless as they faced a situation they could not control.
As if nature’s wrath were not enough, geopolitical tensions have been causing disruptions in cocoa supply chains, especially in West Africa, where financial instability and child labor have become commonplace issues. Faced with so many challenges and lacking government support, many farmers decided to abandon cocoa for other crops that are easier to manage and could generate better profits.
All these factors combined led to a global shortage in cocoa supply that has left chocolate manufacturers and every other company that uses cocoa in their products fumbling for solutions. At this pace, experts estimate that if we don’t find a way to address the situation, we should get ready to bid farewell to cocoa and chocolate by 2050.
Looking for potential solutions
The future of this sought-after ingredient is clearly under threat, which means producers can’t afford to stand with their arms crossed, watching how the cocoa supply continues to shrink and seeing prices skyrocket to record highs and then plummet, only to rise again. Unfortunately, putting an end to or at least alleviating the climate crisis is not something that can be done overnight, much like the issue didn’t appear suddenly. It’s going to take a long time to undo the harm that’s been caused.
So, if eliminating the root problem is not yet possible, what can one do in the meantime to prevent things from getting worse? Most experts agree that the answer lies in innovation and sustainable farming. Far from being a marketing gimmick, sustainability is a necessity in cocoa production. This implies resorting to agroforestry measures such as planting shade trees (mango, cashew) to protect cocoa from extreme weather, improving soil, and boosting biodiversity. For chocolate manufacturers, partnering with companies like ofi that provide high-quality ingredients sourced from sustainable producers can offer a solution.
Governments also have to step in and implement policies that encourage sustainable cocoa production, protect labor rights, and enforce environmental standards. The goal is to ensure that cocoa farmers can earn enough to invest in their farms and reduce reliance on unsustainable shortcuts. Creating co-ops and providing access to training are also ideas worth considering, as this would help increase financial literacy and enable farmers to make better business-related decisions.
Modernizing the production infrastructure and adopting advanced tech solutions can make a notable difference as well, making it easier for farmers to manage crops and reach their profit targets. Consumers can also do their part and support brands that prioritize sustainable practices and invest in farmer livelihoods.
All in all, addressing the cocoa crisis is a complex issue that requires comprehensive action and a multifaceted approach, with governments, industry players, and consumers all working together to secure the future of this once-thriving industry.
